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Monday, May 4, 2015

The Oil Market speculation

It seems the oil rig count falls for 21st straight week.
The market price for oil is still volatile with NYMEX jun 2015 at $58.51 -1.05% and Brent Crude at $66.07 -0.68%.
The recent rally for oil in April of 25% was interrupted by recently data.
"The possibility of a return of oil supplies from Iraq, Iran or Libya, and the potential for a rise in U.S. drilling rig activity, Morgan Stanley said".
April data on manufacturing activity showed a decline in China, but activity in the eurozone was seen as robust.
The crude oil inventories for US last week was 1.9M vs consensus of 2.1M meanwhile the API data shows that crude supplies rose 4.2 million barrels for the week ended April 24 (three times more than the 1.4 million-barrel increase forecast by analysts surveyed by Platts).
The demands vs supply are increasing according to the forecast from IEA. 

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)

It is clear the US economy may not be benefiting from the collapse in oil price over the past 10 months.
The oil falls have direct impact on the US economy, thousand of workers are losing their jobs on oil industry.
It is not clear the price of the oil for the near future, so we maintain our recommendations cautious on oil prices.

Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Jun 2015
52 week low: 45.93
52 week high: 98.22

Brent Crude (ICE EU) Jun 2015

52 week low: 50.10
52 week high: 109.76

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